RSTUDIO: Final Project - Data Correlation, Causation

Extract

[...] Inflation has a positive coefficient, so increase in inflation is related with an increase of fertility levels in the US. avPlots(mus) Discussion Japan is the country where inflation and unemployment rate explain the best the evolution of fertility. In this country it seems like that when there are more people unemployed, they are more likely to have children. An interpretation could be that work is so stressful that workers can't conceive to have children, maybe due to lack of time for potential mother for example. There are studies on this subject with this [article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5949204/) for example. [...]

[...] Thus, it makes people less anxious, and it does not prevent them to have a child. Conclusion All in all, we have seen that the three countries have different profiles. In Japan fertility is impacted positively by unemployment. In the US fertility is impacted negatively by inflation. And in France it is impacted negatively by both inflation and unemployment rate. We proposed sociological interpretations of these results. They could be used to make projections for 2023 and 2024 with the inflationist context. [...]

[...] RSTUDIO: Final Project - Data Correlation, Causation In this document we propose to study three countries on three different continents namely France, Japan and United States. We want to analyze how the primary variable fertility rate is related to the influencing variables namely unemployment rate and inflation. Indeed, harsh economic conditions could lead the population to be less optimistic and thus having less children. Let's verify if this assumption verifies on real data. Methodology Firstly, we describe how we managed to gather relevant data. [...]

[...] For french people it seems that the overall macroeconomic environment explains fertility. When it is gloomy, they tend to have less children. Indeed, people may be anxious for the future or their potential child or during high inflation the poorest people could struggle to sustain themselves and be reluctant to have children. In the US the model is also not so informative with a R squared of the same magnitude. However contrary to Japan this time the unique informative variable is inflation. Increase in inflation causes a decrease of fertility. [...]

[...] In Japan there is a high negative correlation between unemployment rate and fertility and a high positive correlation between inflation and fertility. In the US there is a positive correlation between inflation and fertility. These correlations are different across countries so they have different profiles on the relations between fertility and the two explanatory variables. Linear regression Firstly, we consider three linear regression models: one for each country. mfr = lm(fertility_FR ~ inflation_FR[,2] + unemployement_FR[,2]) summary(mfr) In France the F statistic indicates that the model is better than simply using the mean. [...]