A system dynamics approach for village development planning with reference to India

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A system dynamics approach for village development planning with reference to India

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Abstract

This paper presents the results of a detailed 10-week long fieldwork done at the Tuljapur village in Thane district of Maharashtra a state in India obtained from modeling the observed data using the System Dynamics methodology. Various resource-technology-need linkages (forward and backward) were technically noted during fieldwork and incorporated in the system dynamics model to assess impacts of different technological interventions on future sustainability of region. Also the impacts of well known Agro-Horti-Forestry model popularly known as WADI (Orchard Development) currently implemented by the local Non Government Organization in the region has been analyzed. A set of variables to quantify the sustainability of the region with sustainable development as perspective were also included. Results of this intervention on predefined development indicators have shown the benefits that can be realized in the near future.

Development defines typical desirable attributes (both in terms of means and ends) of social change; with the implicit assumption that social change is an inherent characteristic of all societies. The main objective of development process is to steer social change in a desirable direction. Modern societies perceive that one of the powerful means of steering the societal change is through the instrument of technology intervention

Abstract
Introduction
System dynamics model
1. Development perspectives
2. In house model
3. The conceptual model
4. Chosen sustainability indicators
5. Tuljapur SD model
6. WADI (Agro-horti-forestry for tribal rehabilitation)
Results
1. Scenario A: System as it is
Discussion
References

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[...] Results Scenario System as it is The graphs shown below in Figure 3 indicate the variation of some of the basic level variables of the village system over next fifty years without any technological intervention (system as it is) that is the reference scenario. Human population does not seem to stabilize during the simulation period of fifty years but if one persuades the practical significance the growth rate of population one per year which is merely stabilizing. Thus carrying capacity of human population increases initially and carrying capacity for human population initially decreases and finally stabilizes in around twenty years at a relatively lower value. [...]

[...] Target Group approach (Socio-Anthropological focus) For the details about these perspectives one may refer to In house model An in house SD model has been developed for studying the sustainability features of development of a subsistence agriculture village This model permits ten technology interventions. The SD model is constructed to trace mutual inter-dependence among the following six sectors (also called levels): 1. Human Population 2. Animal Population 3. Cooking Energy sector 4. Agriculture 5. Forest and Grazing land 6. Water resources The SD model thus traces evolution of a village through time (over a period of 50 years) when different technology options are introduced in the village at different times. [...]

[...] Human Population Yield per hectare 800 kg/(Year*ha) 550 person Time (Year) Time (Year) Yield per hectare : tuljapur system as it is Human Population : tuljapur system as it is cooking energy per capita Animal population animal Kcal/(Year*person) Time (Year) Time (Year) cooking energy per capita : tuljapur system as it is 1 Animal population : tuljapur system as it is Self sufficiency in Food for people Self sufficiency index for fodder Dmnl Dmnl Time (Year) Time (Year) Self sufficiency in Food for people : tuljapur system as it is 1 Self sufficiency index for fodder : tuljapur system as it is 1 Figure 3 System as it is with WADI If the WADI programme which is under implementation in the village removed, and then if the village system is simulated (i.e. [...]

[...] In the current model system dynamics has been utilized to facilitate planning or management of resources available with a typical village system from sustainable development perspective. The different perspectives governing the underlying conceptual or mental model are described as follows: Development Perspectives: The commercial and social mechanisms combined known as an Innovation chain, which links technology to the process of development, can in principle be operationalised through the following four approaches: 1. Factor Endowment approach (Economic focus ) 2. Resource Endowment approach (Ecological focus) 3. [...]

[...] Cooking Energy per Capita Also self sustainability of the village is checked with the help of self sufficiency indicators listed below: Self sufficiency in food (Food availability / Food requirement) Self sufficiency in fodder (Fodder available /Fodder requirement) Self sufficiency in cooking energy (Per capita cooking energy availability / Per capita cooking energy requirement) And Fulfillment index for village energy (Total village energy available / village energy consumed). The performance of village dynamics is analyzed by looked at the sustainability indicators. [...]

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