The conflict in Northern Ireland

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The conflict in Northern Ireland

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Northern Ireland, conflict, Europe, irish people, war, better future, Ireland, good friday agreement, great britain, Brexit, United Kingdom, peace, nationalism, compromise, unity, catholic minority, demography, rebellions, revolts

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Abstract

Nowadays, the country or province of Northern Ireland is a peaceful part of Europe, and nobody coming to visit Belfast could even imagine that one of the most recent conflicts in Europe - apparently - ended there only two decades ago - even if, of course, the memories of the elder remain. After too many victims of a war for sovereignty and religion, the Irish people decided in 1998 that the time for fighting was over and that peace would be the best guarantee for a better future in the coming XXI century. An Irish blessing says: "May the best day of your past the worst day of your future." There was no better sentence to illustrate the feeling of the voters who finally saw the sunshine in a peaceful Ireland for the famous Good Friday Agreement of 1998.

The Good Friday Agreement, more a compromise for the peace than a final solution to all problems
1. Ireland, half a millennium of wars
2. The Good Friday Agreement: putting aside the problems in order to find a compromise
The threatening cloud of Brexit
1. In Northern Ireland, being European and Irish will not be possible anymore
2. After 20 years of unity, will the border come back?
The long-term and its uncertainties
1. The Catholic minority and its demography, a time bomb
2. What if Northern Ireland was making the choice to prefer Europe (and Ireland) to the United Kingdom?

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[...] Paradoxically, reopening these memories was not the wish of the Irish - most of them voted to remain - but the thunderclap of Brexit made us all remember that, even if it had not been the only factor, the fact that the United Kingdom and Ireland were both members of the European Union had made the peace possible, by making the border between Eire and Ulster obsolete. But, the reintroduction of border controls will be a first step back for a peaceful Ireland. [...]

[...] What about Ireland? Until 2016 - and it is one of the best proofs of the success of the Good Friday Agreement - the demands of independence in Northern Ireland had become marginal, compared with Scotland. However, the Northern Irish situation is quite similar: 56% of the people also voted to remain and keep their triple Irish, British and European identity - while, for the same reasons, keeping them all will not be possible anymore. If, for some of the Northern Irish - mainly the Protestants with familial origins from England - remaining in the United Kingdom seems preferable than remaining in the European Union, the "native" Catholic minority growing minority of more than could see this deal as particularly unfair, while they did not even feel that close to London before Brexit came. [...]

[...] If prevention can reduce the risk, it can never make it disappear. Conclusion After decades of troubles in Northern Ireland, and more generally, centuries of war in Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement appeared as the best possible compromise to finally bring back peace in the island; even if it did not solve all problems, at least Ireland lived more 20 years of peace, proving that different communities could definitely live together in Ireland, especially within the frame of the European integration. [...]

[...] At second, we will demonstrate how the current Brexit crisis is menacing the Irish peace since we understood - too late - its incompatibility with the former agreements. Finally, we will try to imagine if some scenarios could cause a new conflict in Ireland in the medium to long term. The Good Friday Agreement, more a compromise for the peace than a final solution to all problems Ireland, half a millennium of wars The origins of the conflict in Ireland are actually prior to the troubles who affected the XXth century. [...]

[...] If their situation is not anymore what it was one or two centuries ago - extremely poor people, working their land hard under the control and for the benefits of English owners or English descendants - equality remains a utopia in 2019: they are still poorer, their children have less opportunities, and frustrations remain. A very bad sign should call our attention: there are more walls separating the communities in Northern Ireland nowadays, than there were in 1998. Hard to say that integration has been a success. We have also observed that in the past few years, and especially after 2016, part of the North Irish youth, who was not born or very young when the troubles ended, is now following extremist groups denouncing the peace agreements. [...]

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