European Union, security policy, foreign policy, historical problems, crisis, Russia, Soviet Republics, natural gas, Moscow, international role, communism, France, Germany, Ukraine, Kosovo war, Bosnia, minority rights, international law, middle east, Iran, nuclear weapons, Africa, military operation, China
The European Union has still very limited means in terms of foreign and security and defense policy, and its members still follow quite different foreign policy agendas. But the EU confronts several and often growing problems and crisis in her immediate vicinity.
[...] They are not absolutely without support: they can count on the Greeks, who are very uneasy with the progress of Islam in the former Yugoslavia and with the expansionist tendencies of the Albanians, some of whom dream of a Greater Albania, including, beyond Albania proper, Kosovo, parts of Macedonia (where Albanians make up to 30% of the population) and parts of Northern Greece. And the Serbs may be tempted to play the Russian card, because Moscow does not want to be excluded from the Balkan and consider herself as the historical ally of the Serbs. The prospect of a democratic Balkan, reconciled by the admission of all those countries in the EU, is still very far off. And what was achieved there since 1995 owns more to the US than to Europe. [...]
[...] But in December 2007 a National Intelligence Estimate by the American secret services out of the blue stated that Iran stopped all military nuclear work since 2003 and had not resumed it, which is most certainly not true. But Washington could no longer credibly think of launching strikes to stop Iran's nuclear effort, even if it more and more forcefully accused Teheran of interfering in Iraq. Since then, the Security Council has tried to achieve a third, more stringent resolution, with more sanctions against Iran. [...]
[...] The Russians, who consider that the extension of NATO the Baltic countries in 2004 amounted to a new Cold War, or a "cool war", reacted forcefully. Largely because there is there a confusion, which the US nurtures, between enlargement of the EU, which the Russians have decided to accept, and NATO enlargement, about which they are still furious, considering it to be a breach of the agreements of 1990. The point here is that we have a clear rift between France and Germany on one side and the countries which met in Vilnius on the other: they do not follow at all the same policy towards Russia. [...]
[...] What would the Europeans do if Egypt, for instance, were to experience a victory of the radical Muslim Brothers? The Europeans tend to feel that one should try to maintain a dialogue even with the radicals, but that view, whatever its merits (which can be disputed) has no chance to succeed as long as Israel and the US agree on an inflexible policy towards radicals. The only recent development is that the rift in Europe about Iraq is subsiding: Spanish troops left Iraq two years ago, Italian troops with the victory of Romano Prodi are going to do the same, and Blair is under attack in Great Britain also because of his policy in Iraq. [...]
[...] The Ahtisaari Plan has not been approved by the Security Council of the UN, where Russia was very reluctant. Of course, Serbia was against the plan, and the Europeans were not all enthusiastic (particularly countries in the region, like Croatia and Greece, and also Spain (with the Basks ) which fear the precedent of secession by disaffected minorities. All the same, Kosovo proclaimed its independence from Serbia in February 2008, the US and many European countries decided to recognize Kosovo as an independent State, at the same time putting it under a kind of European Union protectorate, with many officials and police from the EU, in order to stabilize the country, which is far from being the case. [...]
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