Monetary policies, Janet Yellen, US Federal reserve, global economy, nomination of Jerome Powell, Jerom Powell, Donald trump, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, policy instruments, inflation, global trade, consumer welfare, employment, low rate, developed economies, Ben Bernanke, Dodd-Frank legislation
Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen is stepping down from her position in early February 2018. It is widely that her successor is going to be President Trump's selected nominee, Jerome Powell. In contrast with the last three Fed chairpersons, Powell is not an academic, though he has an extensive background in banking, and has in fact been serving on Federal Reserve Board of Governors since 2012. As such, his appointment is hardly a break from past policies pursued by the board, and his positions on monetary policy remain conventional. Regardless, a change in Fed leadership instills some degree of uncertainty in an already unsteady global economy. In particular, there are issues directly linked to the American as well as global economies: unemployment in the United States has bottomed out to the lowest level since the early 2000.
[...] There are however uncertainties related to the global shift in economic trends: in the United States as elsewhere, politicians find an electoral advantage in denouncing free trade, even if evidence suggest that is had a beneficial impact on consumer welfare, and a very low adverse effect on employment. Large economies are bound to adopt more protectionist postures, which is likely to trigger a trade war, and hurt them all in the final analysis. This expected decline in global trade is also bound to have an impact on capital flows, which have been greatly facilitated thanks to historic low rate in developed economies. [...]
[...] How is the nomination of Jerome Powell at the head of the US Federal reserve going to affect the global economy, especially on the issues of monetary policy and financial regulation? Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen is stepping down from her position in early February 2018. It is widely that her successor is going to be President Trump's selected nominee, Jerome Powell. In contrast with the last three Fed chairpersons, Powell is not an academic, though he has an extensive background in banking, and has in fact been serving on Federal Reserve Board of Governors since 2012. [...]
[...] The recession was indeed intense enough that the Federal Reserve reported that 86% of surveyed business cut back on their production in late 2008. The Federal Reserve also immediately cut its policy rates to historical lows, from 5.02% in August 2007, to 0.16% in December 2008. The Fed has also put together a first iteration of the QE program with a massive buy of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, which dwarves the fiscal package put together by congress and the Obama administration. [...]
[...] This monetary policy wants to head off any signs of overheating the economy, such as a too low unemployment rate, or a rapid increase in inflation. The fact that US. economy is reaching full employment means that the Fed's monetary policy will revert back to its standard tradeoff between economic activity and inflation stabilization, as illustrated by Taylor. These elements suggest that Powell is unlikely to deviate from the policies advocated by Yellen. In fact, his own voting patterns have been consistent with those of the Chairperson, so uncertainty as to changes in monetary policy is not founded on an actual basis. [...]
[...] Furthermore, the general improvement of the economy in the US is putting pressure on monetary policymakers to raise interest rates, which they did in December 2016. The increase of policy rates signals an end to an abnormally long period of low interest rates, and this could have repercussions on other countries as well. This is particularly the case in emerging economies that benefited from these low rates in order to attract foreign investment and issue debt. The crisis and unconventional monetary policies Janet Yellen was nominated to be Fed Chair in February 2014 for a four-year term. [...]
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