Brexit, North Ireland, IRA Irish Republican Army, geopolitics, EU european union
We often speak rightly about the impact of Brexit on the new geopolitics of the European Union. But England denying its commitment to the European project could have an impact beyond Northern Ireland, a territory which has experienced a terrible civil war between pro-London Protestants and Irish Catholics.
[...] The closure of the border with the Republic of Ireland would primarily have a negative impact on the economy of Northern Ireland. In fact, the actual trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain accounts for 22% of Northern Ireland's sales of goods, or £ 10.7 billion in 201531. The Republic of Ireland is the first Northern Ireland's trading partner, exporting 2.7 billion pounds of goods32. However, for the British government, these cross-border exchanges could be considered as local exchanges, thus escaping international rules. [...]
[...] Its ambition was to bring the different communities together to govern. Suspended several times, particularly between October 2002 and May 20078, due to the break-up of the peace process, the devolution was finally restored in Northern Ireland. On one side deputies of the Legislative Assembly sit on it. Generally, Protestant Unionists of the Democratic Union Party defended Northern Ireland's membership to the United Kingdom9. On the other side, the Catholic Republicans of Sinn Féin, militating for the unity of Ireland, had the largest number of deputies10. [...]
[...] Facing the countless uncertainties raised by the Brexit, voices are rising, both in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in order to call for a referendum on United Ireland. However, it seems essential to examine the feasibility of the two main scenarios now envisaged. II. Scenario 1 - The birth of an independent Northern Irish micro-state In this scenario, Northern Ireland would separate from Britain to become an independent sovereign and a sovereign member state of the EU while recognizing the authority of the British Crown37. [...]
[...] The other EU Member States, for their part, unanimously consider that these requirements as being incompatible20. On the other hand, Brexit debates are therefore raging with major implications for both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. In the case of a Soft Brexit, access to the single market, at least for certain sectors of the economy would be maintained, as well as the free movement of persons in exchange for a contribution of the United Kingdom to the budget of the EU. [...]
[...] This is why the symbols of the division of flags and monuments are not to be taken lightly. On the other hand, in Belfast, Catholics and Protestants remain stuck in the throes of segregation. Because of such tensions, the Catholics wonder how the two communities could share the same state if they are still unable to live together in the same city. The rights of Protestants, who would be a minority in such a configuration, should be protected by special provisions in a new federal Irish state. [...]
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