The 2015 UN Paris Climate Agreement: success or a failure?

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[...] Retrieved 24 April 2021, from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/ndc-synthesis-report van Asselt, H. (2016). International climate change law in a bottom-up world. Questions of International Law 15. World Ressource Institute (2019) Paris Rulebook: Global Stocktake. [...]

[...] Since the Paris Agreement entered into force, progress toward emission targets has been mixed. The outcome of the agreement can be assessed according to the five following criteria: its quantitative achievements on GHG emission and temperature trajectories the effectiveness of its feedback mechanisms its ability to incentivize parties to undertake progressively more ambitious NDCs, (iii) its capacity to build a dynamic, resilient and flexible framework, and its contribution to the global narrative on climate change The quantitative achievements As of today, the climate trajectory decided in 2015 is not respected. [...]

[...] Following the signature of the Paris Agreement, new investment in clean energy decreased by 18%. It seems that energy investment is not determined, or significantly influenced, by international legal outcomes. Instead, market trends are shaped by domestic policy choices and broader technological trends. Motivating climate action Beyond quantitative emission objectives, the Paris Agreement had the goal to foster climate action. Therefore, its effectiveness can be assessed by its ability to entice parties to take on progressively more ambitious NDCs. The text of the agreement does encourage countries in that regard, article 4.3 states that "Each Party's successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party's then current nationally determined contribution?"8. [...]

[...] Without trade sanctions or punitive enforcement, it is unclear how the agreement could shape government regulatory behavior and, in turn, investment patterns. Renewable energy, alongside coal, are the two clearest markets where an investment signal should be visible. Comparing trends of global energy investment with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) cycle of Climate Summits reveals that there is no clear link between renewable energy investment and outcomes in climate negotiations. For instance, in December 2009, the Copenhagen climate conference collapsed, resulting in a vague non-consensual and nonbinding accord noted by both the parties and the media. [...]

[...] The first test of the Paris Agreement's resilience was President Trump's decision to withdraw. No other countries followed the United States. This is an indication of the durability of the agreement and therefore, of its effectiveness in the long run. However, it is not a guarantee of its ability to deliver the necessary global GHG emission reductions in the short term. Establishing a positive narrative around climate change The Paris Agreement created a positive narrative around climate action and spurred the debate from burden-sharing approaches towards a shared vision for a net-zero economy and society. [...]